Don’t DeTrain the Cain Just Yet

*****UPDATE*****
Of course this story is very dynamic.  Updates at bottom of post.
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@JimmieBJr wrote a great piece: My Trip on the Cain Train Stops Here at his MUST subscribe blog - The Sundries Shack.  I forget when – or to whom – I’ve said this to (I may have blogged it) that I had my “Cain Train” ticket but hadn’t boarded yet.  I have no “train” from which “detrain.”  But I have liked Cain very much and even with all this – still might jump on board.  I want to urge CAUTION to everyone who feel people like Jimmy Bise are fair weather supporters, or to those who want to give up on him. 

By the way, please blame this blog on JimieBJr. Since he only allows a 200 character reply, this is now a blog response. JBJ says:

Really, whether the story or true or not isn’t important, politically. Thanks to the way the Cain campaign handled the story of the first two harassment allegations, this new accusation is plausible and that’s enough for me.

These stories should never have gotten this far. That they have is a testament to the utter incompetence of Herman Cain’s campaign team.

For me, the essence of his argument is:

What really bothers me, and why after nearly a year of constant and eager support I can’t back Herman Cain’s campaign any longer, is that Brand Management is supposed to be Cain’s strength. That is how he helped build Pillsbury and how he turned Godfather’s Pizza around. I was willing to ignore Cain’s lack of political expertise because, when you get down to it, politics is nothing more than building and managing a personal brand. Cain should have excelled that that, but he hasn’t. I’m baffled by his inability to deliver an uncluttered message when his entire career has revolved around successfully doing that very thing.

Great points all.  My reply:

 

I understand the discouragement. By end of yesterday I was convinced of the following:

• There is SOMETHING there.  The conservative Iowa talk show host who reported Cain saying something “inappropriate” to two of his employees cinches this isn’t JUST a hatchet job.
• The Fact 3 Restaurant Assn Board Members publicly came out for him tells me whatever is there isn't adultery or physical – AND that his “character” isn’t a media creation.
• This story is definitely being driven by either the White House, Perry or Romney.
• If it IS Perry or can be proven - Perry has lost any chance to win nomination (like TPaw attacks on Bachmann) and I have lost all respect for my Christian brother. (ok - maybe not ALL but the goodwill I had for sure)

Jimmie, I agree with you that the whole "brand management" thing was one of the reasons to give him a pass on early miscues. Cain supporters keep telling me "we like he's not a politician" but they forget he has to convince independent America too - not just conservatives. Perception is reality in politics and this great "executive" has not only NOT shown he can handle a crisis well - he didn't go out and recruit the best handlers and team to begin with (including advertising people). We are hiring him in part for his ability to hire others. So far that's a fail so far.

 

I wanted to scream every time Obama was defended for his “management” skill because of what a great campaign he ran.  I am more and more convinced he didn’t run any of it.  He just showed up and read his teleprompter where he was supposed to.  The letter he wrote while Editor of the Harvard Review convinced me that not only did he not write his own biography, I don’t think he creates his own IDEAS.  He has proven is it possible to be an (arguably) great campaigner and a lousy executive.  But is it possible to be a lousy campaigner or campaign manager and a great executive?

 

We can’t take this away from Cain:

• He is extremely intelligent.  The CATO economist interviewed on Coffee & Markets who worked with him at the Jack Kemp deal put any question of that to bed for me.
• He succeeded as an executive over REAL operations, profit and loss, and duplicated it showing it wasn’t a fluke.
• His policies are beyond question conservative from his tax plan to social stance.
• Many people who would suffer publicly by embracing his integrity if it was in question are not.  Even Perry’s advisor Curt Anderson admits he is a man of great leadership and integrity.  If there was some Bill Clinton like reputation even POSSIBLE – you wouldn’t find private CEO’s and Board Members risking being wrong.

Now with all the hubub and innuendo out there, the fact a professional political advisor, who gets business from his ability to correctly assess people is STILL willing to say Cain is a man of “GREAT” leadership and integrity, tells me that AT WORST Cain will be guilty of insensitivity or ignorance about how to speak to women.  And honestly, do you know any computer geeks that can?

So if that is the worst it is entirely up to Herman to (finally) get his past him.  In my book there are only two ways.  Either:

1. Have a “sudden” revelation that what you’ve been saying to women can make them feel uncomfortable and you are going to work on that.  Or,
   
2. Take the tack that you are sick of the political correctness in society and women especially have got to quit being so damn sensitive.  You didn’t ask to sleep with any of them and thought you were being nice when you said they filled out their sweater well.  You don’t intentionally want to hurt anyone but you are making a one man stand against all the censorship and pussyfooting.  I call this the “Grand Torino” response.

And if he does either what do we have?  A man of great conviction with some of the most conservative policies and programs we’ve seen proposed who may be bad with women.  Remember, we got a guy who talked like a Texas hillbilly elected over a sitting VP with a pretty good economic record (as it was understood to that point).  These candidates will NEVER be Ronald Reagan.

I love Newt Gingrich.  Like many of you, I thought he could never get elected because of his “baggage.”  Unfortunately, the perception of his baggage is WORSE than that of which Cain is accused.  (I’m writing a blog by the way on many untruths about Newt’s supposed problems including the fact his own daughter who was with her mother debunks the idea he asked for a divorce while she was in the hospital or that ANYTHING was inappropriate.)  But most of us will take someone who we are convinced has CORE conservative principles over a slick delivery.

Remember, how many of us had a lump in our throat on the whole “abortion” question until we learned he gave $1 Million of his own money to combat abortion in urban areas?  If most of us were honest, the same thing happened with Palin on the “death panels.”  We hadn’t read the entire the healthcare law and didn’t REALLY know for a fact if it existed or was misunderstood.  Turns out she was right too.

So let’s all slow a down a minute and let this thing play out.  Cain has new PR “crisis” people and we are nearly 9 months away from a general election.

I respect anyone who feels this is the last straw but let’s put it in perspective.  At worst Cain has two problems.  He makes some women uncomfortable with his comments and needs to hire better “political” engineers as if this was a new business.  He has success in figuring out problems and solve them.

I for one will give him a bit more time to get his train on the right track.

 
Pajamas Media reports two sources who confirm an NRA employee claims to have slept with Mr. Cain while he was her boss.  I must say, unless Mr. Cain (unlikely) doesn’t understand the definition of “sexual harassment,” there would be little room for two ways this could go.

Either she is lying or he is lying.  It is very hard to imagine Mr. Cain being stupid enough to leave NO room for confusion by saying he was blameless and telling Greta there would be NO other incidents forthcoming.    Only because of his unclear comments that led to the abortion issue and Gitmo issue is this door open.

If she comes forth it will have to be determined if she is credible.  If she is the registered “Democrat” it will mean nothing if she isn’t an active political donor to Obama or has connections with the ‘dark’ side somehow.  The fact she told others about the incident at the time is VERY important unless she is proven to be a habitual liar.  One source to PJ Media said that some “people” (to me that is more than one) did not believe her story.  If THOSE “people” come forward – this is put to bed.

Which leads us to the fact that either she does NOT come forward or she IS credible leaving the “he said she said” quandary.  Two or three more would tip that scale but without it – we still only have accusations which by now should be EXPECTED by our side.

Since Cain’s HONESTY has never been in question by anyone, I don’t see how we can BUT help to believe him – unless facts contradict.  As wonderful as I think Sarah Palin is, I frankly would not have been shocked if she was promiscuous in her youth.  But I WOULD expect our “Christian” politicians to just be upfront in the beginning.  You don’t have to intentionally advertise your dirty laundry to come clean that you’ve had some non-empty hampers in your past.

And Republicans will ALWAYS be held to a higher standard because of the “morality” issue most of us embrace.  It is EXACTLY because Cain “advertises” his relationship to Christ – that I give him the benefit of the doubt now.

AND A QUICK WORD ABOUT POLLS.

Rasmussen released a poll today showing CAIN 26% – MITT – 23% – NEWT 14%.   Rasmussen of course only looks at LIKELY VOTERS which makes this a VERY significant poll.  But all polls except online ones (like Zogby’s online poll) trail real time events by at least 5 days or more.  Traditional polls are taken over the course of 3 to 5 days and the pollsters need to write up all their results and copy often making it at least a week late in how people are reacting.  (Erick Erickson had a cow over the huge Cain jump in the Zogby online poll following the Florida straw poll denouncing Cain, Zogby and anyone who didn’t bring him a Southern Comfort spiked latte with peppermint sprinkles.  Every other poll CONFIRMED the Zogby poll about a week later.)

So all that to say, we won’t really know how this impacts the race until next week at the earliest.  Just from the TwitterBlogosphere – my guess is that it has significantly hurt him.  Likely not as bad as the Perry plummet (the Cain Wane?) but if Newt was already on the rise last week – it wouldn’t be impossible to see MITT 25% – NEWT – 22% – CAIN – 18% even by next week.  It would certainly set up a Pay-Per-View event (thank you Dennis Miller) for the Cain-Gingrich debate.

Posted in: 2012,campaign,Herman Cain,politics