Santorum and Bachmann: Weak Tea?

Gallup released an interesting poll of national Tea Party/non-Tea Party GOP voters.  Gingrich gets 41% of the CONSERVATIVE vote and 47% of the TEA PARTY vote.  It will be a revelation for some that these are not synonymous terms.  It is also interesting that the candidate named “Other/Any/None” is in third place.

While we think of the “Tea Party” being conservative “purists,” the reality is that nearly 50% of Tea Party patriots go for Newt.  Wasn’t he supposed to be the Washington insider and closet “big government” Republican?  Undoubtedly the purists will want a new “Pure Conservative” label which Romney will quickly claim epitomizes him.  But it is interesting that the Massachusetts Tea Party AVOIDER – gets the same Tea Party votes than Perry, Bachmann and Santorum put together.

Republican Segment	Percent
ALL GOP	100%
Conservative	80%
Financial Conservative	75%
Social Conservative	40%
Palinista (Not a mere supporter)	18%
Will Only Vote for a non-sinner	9%
Clueless about Political Facts & Electoral Reality	31%

How can 20% of “Conservatives” be for Romney and only 19% be for the REAL Tea Party representatives?

PolitiJim readers know.  As laid out in the HOW TO PICK A GOP CANDIDATE series, POLICY alone does not a good conservative president make. 

How can the founder of the Congressional Tea Party Caucus get less support than the candidate who has yet to even ATTEND a Tea Party meeting?

Tea Party conservatives understand the necessity for two key additional ingredients.  First, they have to be ELECTABLE to a general election electorate and secondly they have to GOVERN with LEADERSHIP.  This I assume is the problem with Santorum and Bachmann. 

The quality of being “electable” is simple.  Can a majority of VOTERS (not all Americans), SEE the candidate as “being” President?  Or can they at see them being more presidential than the opposing candidate.  It is right that Speaker Gingrich is in the lead for his ability to effectively battle BOTH Obama and media in the eyes of the public.  (My apologies to the Tweeter or Blogger I can’t remember who mentioned this a week ago.  They said “the GOP wants the best debater against Obama.”)  Governor Perry was less hurt by his insult to those who didn’t want to pay for illegals getting a college education, as the thought of how embarrassed we would be if he gaffed in a debate with Obama.  We understand there are many people who don’t have a clue about what these people stand for but that they act on the emotion of “Do they LOOK like a President.”  It certainly is how Obama got elected. 

On this basis, my guess is that despite the unfair “crazy” label the media puts on Bachmann, most of feel she would have a good chance of acquitting herself well.  Santorum looks so frustrated and angry and “emotional” in debates – I don’t think any see him as “Presidential” material no matter how great he is on Iran, Abortion and monetary issues.  I could easily see Santorum in a Michael Dukakis “tank” photo op disaster.  Gingrich looks like he is in control, can handle anything at any time – as does Romney to a lesser extent.  You could picture them as President.

Bachmann at times has this “deer in the headlights look” which is unfair to suggest means she wouldn’t manage effectively or means anything of importance in functioning as an executive.  But images matter.  Nixon didn’t loose the TV debate on policy, points or delivery but on “image.”  It is a media age no matter how many of us want to scream at the top of our lungs that Lincoln wasn’t a looker either.  There have been moments in watching Bachmann when I believe she has this in her.  But like McCain’s goofy moment against Obama, she might not have the discipline to look self assured, authoritative and nonplussed to give voters confidence throughout the rest of the campaign. 

It is the “GOVERNING AND LEADERSHIP” issue that reflect the poll results more than anything else.  Once this person gets in office – what evidence do we have that A) They set an agenda and vision for the future to rally people to the cause and B) They will be persistent in “selling” their vision to the people?  Cain soared because he had a CONCRETE plan.  Dick Morris pointed out the direct correlation to Gingrich’s rise when he started to propose solutions, instead of merely chide the media and wow us with his understanding of the problems.  While Bachmann has positively glowed when she defended herself against Pawlenty, demonstrated how important and complicated Obamacare repeal was and emphasized the larger picture is electing a conservative majority in the Senate, she has never really sold us on a “President” Bachmann.  The shrill complaining she has fallen into in interviews and debates leads many to wonder if she can boldly set a vision STRATEGY forward and not just a specific series of TACTICS.

A “tactic” is what Romney has.  Fifty Nine of them to be exact.  A strategy was 9-9-9 which not only included specific tactics (like eliminating capital gains), but also had an overall theme of lower taxes on EVERY level with an incentive for businesses unparalleled in any Western country.  An entirely new economic approach that fit together into a strategy.  Newt is able to qualify as having a strategy on everything because he paints a comprehensive picture about WHY things are the way they are and HOW they work.  And the “Contract with America” was a strategy we’ve seen work, so we know he has it in him.

Having a strategy versus motivating people to follow it – is the difference.  Cain soared and somewhat sustained himself even through the initial false sex accusations in large part because he was still motivating people to the larger cause he represented.  When (foreign) “policy” and “electable” legs of the stool wobbled – so did his poll numbers.  (I still believe he could have done great damage to Obama and the liberal media by fighting in the face of charges.)

PolitiJim followers will know I love me some Tebow.  Not just because he isn’t embarrassed about his faith, not just because he is a “good” guy (and I like to see the good guy win every now and then), but because he exemplifies leadership.  He did it in Florida when he got up in front of the press and gave his teammates a goal to finish the year even though it looked like their national championship prospects were over.  And Harvard scientists have concluded that it is a “miracle” the team has won 6 of 7 games where their performance doesn’t justify it.  Orton actually had BETTER numbers.  Same team, different leader.  Leadership is the ability to motivate others to accomplish great things WITH YOU.  And you cause THEM to be better.  The magic of Reagan for sure.

I haven’t seen any capability of that in Santorum, and, while not Sarah Palin, Bachmann could potentially give us that.  I wrote the Bachmann campaign weeks ago and gave them a 4 step plan to reassert themselves in the polls.  Unlike Gingrich who called on a debate with Obama the week after I suggested it, I have seen no such PolitiWisdom from her camp.  But, I certainly would love to see a stronger principled conservative candidate keep Gingrich “honest” on policy and even nudge him farther right on subsidies and immigration in which Michele excels.  So thus my advice to Congresswoman Bachmann.

1. Quit whining.  Pawlenty fell when he started attacking and complaining about you.  Newt has consistently risen as he learned his lesson from the Paul Ryan fiasco and truly transformed the entire debate series.  If you need to point out a difference in policy don’t tell us why theirs is wrong – tell us why yours is better.  You have no idea how many you offended with the failed “666” joke against Cain’s 999 plan.
   
2. Give us “Contract against Government Waste” or a plan to go “Back to a Constitutional Future” that encompasses not just policy positions, but an overall “big vision” strategy to support.  You were with the Tea Party when it wasn’t popular, but you have yet to package that into an agenda.
   
3. Show us your team.  Tell us who you would name to Treasury, Secretary of Defense and cabinet positions whether they’d support you or not.  Show us what a President Bachmann Administration would look like.  As you rise in the polls, announce your VP candidates.  You need to paint a picture for us that makes us start envisioning you behind the desk of the oval office and not on the arm of Marcus.
   
4. You rose in the polls when you firmly held your own against little Governor Timmy.  Trump rose in the polls when he called out Obama to show us his birth certificate.  Pick a fight with the felon!  Start daily to call on Obama to explain why his Social Security Number can’t pass eVerify.  Ask him to explain why we have NO RECORD of him from his private school in Hawaii (or the hospital of his supposed birth) all the way up to Columbia and Harvard.  We don’t even know his grades whey he’s told us his daughter’s grades.  Not in a “nah nah nah nah nah nay” vein, but as Eliot Ness would to Capone.  Coming from a place of authority to explain themselves or you will take action.  I PROMISE you a 10 point jump in the polls.  Trump got about 30.
   
5. You have a great sense of humor, you are very beautiful and it would seem – a terrific mom.  But you need to start projecting more serious “Margaret Thatcher” and less “I’m a fun mom.”  It will take discipline and a change of mindset to project that the reporters who interview you, the moderators that try and demean you are little gnats you could crush if you wanted to.  Prior to announcing your run, you had a great calm assuredness and presidential aura.  It needs to be 24/7/365 from here on out.

I’ll be honest.  I’m a little unsure about giving you this information because you might actually do this.  It might split the true “conservative” vote and give Romney an opening.  It is dangerous.  But, it is true you are the most conservative candidate running and Newt has no reason to become more aggressive at dismantling government and educating America on fundamentals of capitalism and conservatism as you and I see it, if he has no competition for real leadership.

I suspect you have it in you.  And you won’t know until you try.

Posted in: 2012,campaign,michele bachmann,Newt Gingrich,polls,Rick Santorum,rsfiles,tea party