Can Santorum Win in Michigan?

I have to say I am relatively surprised by Santorum's resilience in the Michigan polls. After his rather unfortunate detour into the rabbit hole of his very social conservative views (attacking prenatal diagnostics, etc.), which even Pat Buchanan criticized, and his poor debate performance, I thought Santorum's bubble was going to pop. While it is certainly popping in Arizona and nationally, in Michigan he actually seems to be gaining some momentum in the last few days. In the latest PPP poll, he actually leads Romney by 39 to 34 amongst people who plan on voting on election day. It is only because of the 16% of people who have already voted, who break overwhelmingly for Romney, that Romney comes out with a 2% lead in that poll. It seems that if turnout is high, Santorum will win, if it is low, it will be Romney, who hasn't been doing himself any favors with his comments about his Cadillacs and just a general lack of excitement for his campaign.

The question is, why is Santorum continuing to do well in Michigan (and possibly giving Romney a loss in his home state) while he is doing poorly in Arizona, which also has a primary on the same day? I think the answer is just basic politics. He is physically campaigning in Michigan but is mostly skipping Arizona. Despite often coming across as very unlikeable to many, it seems that when people actually get to see him, as they did in Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri & Colorado, and when he is not in Newt's shadow (who is campaigning with an almost identical platform), people really like him and come out to vote for him. Yes he has made compromises while in office, but unlike Romney, he admits his mistakes and rightly points out that he has a very conservative voting record considering he comes from a pretty blue state. He just comes across as honest, diligent and hard working. Sure, he isn't anywhere near as inspiring a speaker as Newt, nor as slick and prepared as Romney, but there is certainly some sort of x-factor with him that seems to be connecting. Romney's attempt at constant character assassination seems not to be working as well as in the past also. Perhaps people are used to it by now but also it could just be that Santorum is a pretty straight laced guy so slinging mud at him is particularly challenging. Unless you find that he did something obviously out of character for the image he constructed, like had a gay love affair, it's tough to get stuff to stick.

If Santorum does win in Michigan, all the pundits will have to eat so much crow that there will have to be a new addition to the endangered species list. His prior wins have either been in low turnout caucuses (IA, MN, CO) or in a non-binding primary where Newt wasn't even on the ballot (MO). To win a primary in a major state like Michigan, Romney's home state where his father was Governor, will show everyone that his base is far beyond just "bible beating" evangelicals. I would expect his national numbers to start to recover as they seem to be driven by momentum more than anything else. And a Michigan win for Santorum will be a big momentum swing in his favor. It would help him in Washington, which has a caucus on Sunday, March 3rd and then in quite a few states on Super Tuesday, March 6th. If he wins Michigan, he has a great shot at winning in Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma and Tennessee, leaving Romney with just Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia (where only he and Paul are on the ballot). Newt, unfortunately, even with a win in Georgia, would pretty much be crippled at that point.

I'm sure by this point many of you who have read more than a handful of my posts are wondering "hey, aren't you a Newt guy? What is up with the pro-Santorum post?" Yes, I am a Newt guy and have been very impressed with his campaign lately (just this weekend I watched him on Piers Morgan, at the CA GOP convention and at a Church in GA). He has found the right issues to focus on (like $2.50 gas and Obama's tasteless apology to the Afghan government) and I think is the most electable candidate in the field in the general election. Unfortunately, primaries are a lot about luck, momentum and scheduling and many factors can keep the best candidate from winning the nomination. I'm of the mind that if the 1980 electon were held today that George H.W. Bush would be the nominee. There was about 6 weeks back then between Iowa and New Hampshire and it took that long for Reagan to regain the momentum after losing Iowa. If NH was only one week later, he probably would have lost that one too and we might have actually ended up with a second term of Jimmy Carter in the end. So I am just being objective and realistic of what a victory in Michigan might mean for Santorum and to Newt.

Newt still has a chance. It is small but nobody really thought his souffle could rise twice, so who is to say it can't rise a third time? If Santorum is routed in Arizona, Michigan and Washington and Newt keeps pounding away so well on Obama as he has been, conservative voters might wake up to the candidate who so clearly is voicing our frustrations with the current administration and its actions. But for something to happen, it probably has to happen by March 6th.

Cross-posted from libertarian neocon's blog.

Posted in: Mitt Romney,ngfiles,Political,Rick Santorum,rsfiles