I just couldn't help but notice how poorly Santorum is now doing in some of the state polls for upcoming contests. In the latest Marquette University poll, Santorum is now down 8 points against Romney in Wisconsin (primary is on April 3rd). In the previous Marquette poll, conducted in mid-February, Santorum was up by a whopping 16 points! A 24 point swing in a little over a month is nothing to sneeze at, though it is probably par for the course in this roller coaster of a GOP primary.
Even worse, he currently only has a 2 point lead in his home state of Pennsylvania (primary is on April 24th) according to the latest Franklin & Marshall poll. This is a monumental collapse compared to the 29 point lead he had in the Franklin & Marshall poll taken in mid-February. At this rate, he will lose his home state by the time the primary rolls around, and that would be a blow that he won't be able to recover from, despite the facts that all PA delegates are unbound anyway. Home states represent the people who know you best and if you can't even carry your own party's primary there, well, that is certainly a sign of something.
The news is no better in North Carolina (primary is on May 8th), where the latest PPP poll shows Santorum and Romney currently tied. This is a state where at one point Newt was leading by 37 points so it should be prime Santorum country, especially when facing a Massachusetts liberal like Romney. Could Santorum still pull North Carolina out? Sure, he isn't exactly behind in the polls, but you have to understand where the race will be once North Carolina rolls around.
On April 3rd, we will see results for Wisconsin, Maryland and DC. It looks highly likely at this point that Santorum will lose all three (he isn't even on the ballot in DC). Then on April 24th, results from a bevy of northeastern states, Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania & Rhode Island, will be released. None of these states are demographically friendly to Santorum and so he will likely lose at least four of them, if not all 5 (as the latest PA poll implies). So, only after losing what will likely be 8 in a row will he stumble into Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia, which will be friendlier territory. After neighboring Illinois and Ohio went for Romney, Indiana will be tough to win for Santorum, though it could be relatively close. West Virginia, which has become a more reliably conservative state over the years, is also a state where Santorum wasn't able to get a full delegate slate in all the districts (so even if he wins he likely loses). If the race is in such a state on May 8th, how can Santorum even hope to win North Carolina? Heck, it's very conceivable that Santorum might no even win another primary until May 22nd, when Arkansas and Kentucky Republicans vote.
How did the campaign of St. Rick get to such a point? Santorum was marketed as a true conservative who was diligent and disciplined. He essentially stole many of Newt's talking points and kept trotting out his family to show he has a strong moral character and no personal baggage. But the truth of the matter is that his record is actually not that conservative on economic policy and in just the last week he flew off the handle at least thrice, throwing a tantrum on Neil Cavuto's show, implied he would rather go with Obama instead of Romney and even swore at a reporter. On top of all that, he turns off a large percentage of the Republican electorate with his over the top moralizing that makes people fear the government inserting itself into their private lives.
Rick is done. The sooner his supporters realize this, the better. There is still time if they get behind Newt, who has a more conservative record, can unite all factions of the party, is a fantastic speaker and also seems to be a much more loyal Republican (he has repeatedly said that any Republican would be better than Barack Obama). If Santorum supporters stick to rick, Romney seems to be on track for 1,144 and, if that happens, the hopes of a conservative emerging from a brokered convention disappear.
13 comments:
Article posted at Glenn Beck 'Candidates we like' in comment section http://www.glennbeck.com/2012/03/27/some-candidates-we-like/ Thanks you
With all due respect, your analysis strikes me as off. If the picture you paint is correct, we will see a string of Romney victories taking him ever closer to the magic number 1,144. Santorum supporters won't jump ship to Newt, any more than Newt supporters have gone over to support Santorum, and Santorum's not going to call it quits.
It is in the interest of Newt supporters that Santorum OR Newt keep winning, period -- not that Santorum implode. Our main objective should be to deny Romney the delegates he needs to sew this thing up, so that we get a brokered convention.
Mitt Romney is a terrible candidate. The victories he won, he won not by putting forth great arguments for his candidacy, but by smearing and lying about the most conservative, eloquent, and experienced man running for the GOP nomination. I think that is what needs to be kept in mind. Santorum is not the problem. On the contrary, he's a de facto ally. We should not be rooting for his implosion.
J, I pretty much agree with you. I wrote previously (http://libertarian-neocon.blogspot.com/2012/03/case-for-newt-staying-in-race-and.html):
"Recently, target #1 has been Santorum for obvious reasons, he is stealing voters who would otherwise go for Newt. But by attacking Santorum relentlessly, Newt supporters are actually helping Romney's vote totals as some Santorum supporters are turing to Mittens (who also happens to be attacking Santorum). This reduces the chances of Newt ever becoming the nominee since it brings Romney closer to getting to 1,144 and if we don't get a brokered convention, Newt is through. Done. Newt is sacked and there will be no hail mary pass. Newt supporters should keep picking away at Santorum, as the more votes for Newt the better, but the main focus of our ire should be Romney."
The point of the current post though is mainly just to point out that Santorum is imploding (and possibly done) and if things keep going like they are, Romney will get to 1,144. The last paragraph is just to point out to Santorum supporters (many of whom are old Newt supporters) that Santorum just isnt doing it and maybe they should come over to Newt as he has broader appeal from a faction standpoint.
Unlike some, I dont hate Santorum and would vote for him in the general election. I wont be doing that if Romney is the nominee.
all I can say is thanks alot Santorum. You had no shot and kept Gingrich from winning and he did have a shot. Your overblown, self righteous ego likely gave the election to Romney.
Thanks for the quick reply. I must ask, are you firm on your decision not to vote for Romney if he's the nominee? If so, please reconsider. In addition to having very negative feelings about Romney, I don't think he'll win if he's the nominee, but I'm still going to vote for him just to vote against Obama. I won't donate to his campaign, as I think I'll be throwing my money away -- instead I'll give to Reps. Bachmann and West, and other principled leaders I want returned to congress. But, weasel though Romney is, I'd still pull the lever for him.
Just to be clear, I *detest* the GOP Establishment. I think they're destructive morons, little better than the Democrats. However, they *are* better, and in any event, it's clear that ANYONE would be better than Obama. The man is a society-wrecking machine. I'm scared about this lunatic debt, about the job market not improving and the price of energy going up, up, up. If a little better is all we can get this time around, I'll take it. I can't afford not to take it. I can't sit this one out on principle.
The question is are their enough "anti-Romney's" to forestall 1144.
We actually STILL have a long way to go and a lot can happen.
As I've said recently, I (regretfully) would pick Romney over Santorum if it was only those two, but I will be funding someone to replace Romney in 2012
So the holy auroa around Santorum has faded.
Look Santorum has branded himself Newt without the Bagaged. He steals Newt's ideas/lines and promotes his his family and his long marrage as proof.
Thing is, his rise came from the appearance of a damaged Newt Gingrich and the double standard of the Conservative Media (Malkin, Beck, Levin) singing his praises and ignoring his record.
In the past few weeks, this image has been shattered as you said.
He is no longer pure because of his cusing. He shows he can't handle critism, via Neil Cavuto...
In a form of Poetic Justice, Santorum who ran as the Gingrich without Baggage, has done what every Pundit said Newt Gingrich was going to do, become irratic and say something stupid.
I think Dick Morris said it best. Santorum makes Romney look good.
There is a reason half of Gingrich supporters would vote for Romney over Santorum, it's because people think Santorum is a lose cannon.
As for Newt Gingrich
I am a Delaware resident, I was in the Firehall when he was here in Hockessin. The GOPers LOVE Gingrich, the concensious is that he would Obliterate Obama in the debate and that he's the candidate with ideas.
The problem is, and it frustrates me, I hear the same things all the time! He cheated on 2 wives and sat on the Couch with Pelosi.
My friend, Pat said he's not going to vote for Newt for that very reason. I told him, "You do know he was the one who testified against Al Gore right?"
He response is why Newt is 3rd in the polls. "If Newt Gingrich was so conservative why aren't people like Beck and Limbaugh behind him?"
Just like when he was the Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich has been forced out not by the Left, but by the Right. And it's a real shame.
I agree that Rick is imploding but I'm sure he won't exit the race and give his delegates to Newt. That would be a great gesture on his part especially since he has stolen Newt's ideas. But I won't hold me breath on that.
I just finished listening to a speech that Newt gave to Georgetown University students that was just brilliant. I know he felt comfortable with those students because they were on his level of ideas.
It really does bother me that people can't get focused around someone who has the bold ideas that Newt has. All they can see is him sitting on the couch with Pelosi which in their mind, he's a traitor.
Of course, we have people like Beck who calls Newt the Anti-Christ which doesn't help whatsoever. I don't even know how someone arrives at that conclusion when we have someone like Obama as President.
J, I am pretty firm about not voting for Romney. I've just had it with the establishment cramming mushy moderates down our throats that betray us once elected. I also think that long term we will be hurt more by a Romney term than a second Obama term. First, Romney isnt going to fix any of our problems, not economically, not on foreign policy, not anything. He is going to tinker here and there and then unite moderate Republicans and Democrats to do things that I will hate. Then in 2014 there will be a huge rout of Republicans like in 2006 and then again in 2016 when he runs again. Then we will get another Obama like person with both houses of Congress. If Obama wins in 2012, he will be bad but we will still have divided government and then hopefully in 2016 we get a real conservative President.
Anyway, I live in blue state that Romney probably wont ever take so my vote wont help.
By the way, one thing that might make me stick with Romney is if he continues his conservative rhetoric after he gains the nomination. After the etch a sketch comments I doubt he will and he will basically be giving us a choice of Democrats and Democrat-Lite, just like the GOP did in the 50s-70s when the Dems had overwhelming control of the Congress.
I was recounting for someone this morning how I went from my choices as: 1. Santorum, 2. Gingrich 3. Romney, 4. Paul - to - 1. Gingrich, 2. Romney 3. Paul 4. Santorum.
Paul WOULD be number #2 for me if I felt he was electable. To me he has the same problem Santorum does in that they both already come across as crazy and dangerous too many (especially the media) in quantum amounts over Mitt/Newt. As an actual PRESIDENT, I feel Romney/Santorum a toss up with slight edge to Santorum.
But I'm at the point where I'm unwilling to take the chance of Obama being in office 4 more years and that eliminates Santorum for me. The cratering in his home state while Gingrich held his win margin in Georgia was a baseline for me. ALL THE GOP CANDIDATES will be painted as "extreme" by the media as they are doing with Rubio and Romney this morning. The question is there anything underneath it to substantiate it? Santorum has a convoy of 18 wheelers stretching from Virigina to Pensylvania of past gaffes that will inevitably eliminate him from any chance to define himself in a different light in my opinion.
By default, if Gingrich doesn't make it - I have to go to Romney ONLY based on the fact he might have a better shot at beating Obama certainly than Paul or Santorum. NOT because I have any faith that once in office we won't mistake him daily for a light-skinned John Boehner.
If Romney were a light skilled John Boehner, it wouldnt be so bad. Unfortunately he is just a mormon Arlen Specter.
2 extremely wealthy business men have said
Romney is like Obama: George Soros & Shel Adelson. The thought of Romney winning the nomination absolutely DISGUSTS me!!
BUT, I would hold my BREATH (forget holding my nose!) & place a vote for Romney if ONLY to vote for the lesser of 2 evils.
I agree 100% with you & am SICK of the GOP pushing moderates down our throat... but, I wholeheartedly disagree with you, Libneocon, that voting for Romney would be WORSE than an Obama re-election and I IMPLORE YOU to rethink your decision!
If Romney beats Obama in Gen election and DOES'T fulfill his campaign promises, THEN you can raise cane!! You certainly won't be the only one!!
It might JUST be the impetus needed for a desperately needed & LONG overdue REVOLUTION of the Republican Party!!!!!!!
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